How to use this guide
Go through the topics in order. Each one builds on the one before: 01 sets up the payoff table and three rules that need no probabilities, 02 adds probabilities (EMV, EOL and the value of perfect information), 03 draws the same problems as trees and rolls them back, 04 strings several decisions together, 05 teaches Bayes' rule, and 06 uses it to price imperfect information (EVSI). 07 Risk and utility explains when EMV is the wrong yardstick, so you can do it any time after 02.
Inside a topic: read the idea, look at the formula, then open the worked example and follow every step. Close it and redo it on paper. Then change the numbers in the lab until the answer stops surprising you, and finish with the traps.
Then practise. The Drill, the multiple-choice bank and the flashcards are all levelled:
| Level | What it asks | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Beginner | A definition, or one step: read one number or apply one formula | Which alternative does maximin pick? |
| Intermediate | A standard problem in a few steps | Find the EVPI from a payoff table |
| Exam level | A full exam-style question that strings several steps together | Find the posteriors, roll back the tree, and state the strategy |
| Hard | Twists: topics combined, working backwards, and the traps that cost the most marks | Find the approval probability that makes a project break even |
The question generator starts on Auto: it begins at Beginner and moves up a level after three correct answers in a row. You can pick a level yourself at any time. The multiple-choice bank and flashcards are ordered from easy to hard, so working through them in order builds each idea from the ground up.
Exam format, weight and allowed aids differ between sections and terms. Check your own course outline.
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This is the first section. The full guide has every topic, the labs and the practice questions.
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